CategoriesClimate Change
Published 27 October 2026
El Niño 2026 could become the strongest on record. Here is what it means for Pakistan’s monsoon, wheat, water and economy, and what you can do about it.
El Niño 2026 is a well-established, rapidly strengthening climate event, and forecasters say it could be the strongest on record. Here is where things stand.
At a glance
| Indicator | Latest reading |
| Status | El Niño is active; peak expected around December 2026 |
| WMO forecast (21 Oct) | Niño 3.4 about +3.8°C for Nov–Jan (previous record about +2.6°C) |
| NOAA chance of a “historic” event (8 Oct) | 83% for Oct–Dec |
| Global heat | September 2026 was 1.63°C above pre-industrial; 2027 “very likely” to be the hottest year (Met Office) |
| Pakistan | Warmest monsoon in 66 years; rainfall 19% below normal |
| Biggest risks | Water, wheat and food prices, heat, flash floods |
What is El Niño? Definition and meaning
- Definition: El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a natural climate cycle in the tropical Pacific.
- What happens: Sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific run well above average, which shifts winds, clouds and rainfall worldwide.
- Meaning of the name: Spanish for “the Christ Child.” In Urdu, ایل نینو, literally “the little boy.” South American fishermen noticed the warm water around Christmas.
- Not a storm: it is a recurring climate pattern, not a one-off disaster.
Quick facts
| Feature | Typical pattern |
| Starts | April–June |
| Peaks | October–February |
| Lasts | 9–12 months (occasionally up to 2 years) |
| Recurs | Every 2–7 years |
El Niño and La Niña: what is the difference?
La Niña is the cold phase of the same cycle, with a neutral phase in between. Their effects are largely mirror images.
| El Niño (warm phase) | La Niña (cold phase) | |
| Eastern/central Pacific | Warmer than normal | Cooler than normal |
| Trade winds | Weaken or reverse | Strengthen |
| Global temperature | Pushes it higher | Tends to cool it slightly |
| South Asian monsoon | Often suppressed | Often favoured |
| Atlantic hurricanes | Generally suppressed | Generally enhanced |
| Typical rainfall shifts | Drought in Australia, Indonesia, India, southern Africa; floods in Peru, East Africa, southern US | Roughly the reverse |
Quick answer: La Niña is colder. El Niño is hotter, because it adds heat to an atmosphere already warmed by climate change.
How does El Niño form?
| Stage | Normal year | El Niño year |
| Trade winds | Steady easterlies blow across the Pacific | Weaken or reverse |
| Warm water | Piles up near Indonesia and Australia | Slides east to the central and eastern Pacific |
| Upwelling | Cold, nutrient-rich water rises off South America | Suppressed |
| Walker circulation | Rising rainy air in the west, sinking dry air in the east | Weakens or shifts east |
| Weather result | Heavy rain over the western Pacific | Rain follows the warm water east; jet streams and storm tracks bend |
- A downwelling Kelvin wave, a pulse of warm water moving east below the surface, often helps push an event along.
How scientists measure it
The standard yardstick is the Niño 3.4 index, which tracks sea surface temperature anomalies in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific.
| Niño 3.4 anomaly | Category |
| +0.5°C | El Niño conditions |
| +1.5°C | Strong |
| +2.0°C and above | Very strong (“super”) |
| +2.5°C or more (3-month RONI) | “Historic” threshold used by NOAA |
- Since early 2026, NOAA also uses a relative index (RONI), which subtracts the warming of the wider tropical oceans.
Can El Niño be predicted? Largely, yes, months ahead. Models cannot say exactly how strong an event will get or where its impacts will land, so agencies issue probabilities.
What is a super El Niño?
- “Super El Niño” is an informal label, not an official category. It is usually applied to very strong events, with Niño 3.4 above about +2.0°C.
- The benchmarks are the 1997–98 and 2015–16 events.
- Forecasters now say 2026 may surpass both.
Latest readings and forecasts
| Source | Reading |
| Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology (week to 11 Oct) | Relative Niño 3.4 of +2.81°C; most models peak above +3.0°C |
| Columbia IRI (week centred 14 Oct) | Weekly Niño 3.4 of +3.3°C; all 27 models forecast a “very strong” event |
| WMO (8 and 21 Oct) | About +3.7°C for Oct–Dec and +3.8°C for Nov–Jan, against a previous record of +2.6°C |
| UK Met Office, Prof. Adam Scaife | Has never seen an El Niño signal this intense in its forecasts |
Caution: NOAA stresses that intensity does not automatically decide how severe the impact is in any one place. Strength raises the odds of extremes; it does not guarantee them.
El Niño 2026 forecast: where are we now, and when will it end?
How the forecast escalated in 2026
| Date | What forecasters said |
| March | NOAA: only a one-in-three chance of a strong event by late 2026 |
| July | NOAA: 81% chance of a “very strong” event; peak moved earlier to Oct–Dec |
| August | NOAA: 69% chance of a “historic” event (stronger than any since 1950) |
| September | NOAA: 75% chance of a “historic” event |
| 8 October | NOAA: 83% chance of a “historic” event for Oct–Dec |
| October | WMO: consensus of 13 centres gives near-100% odds El Niño lasts through February 2027 |
When will El Niño end?
- Peak: around December 2026.
- Duration: most forecasts keep El Niño in place through early 2027; NOAA put the chance of persistence through April at 97%.
- Decline: events usually fade through spring and early summer, though their effects can linger.
- Next update: NOAA publishes on 12 November.
Effects of El Niño on global climate and weather
| Effect | What typically happens | Who is most exposed |
| Record heat | El Niño releases stored Pacific heat into the air on top of human-caused warming. September 2026 was 1.63°C above pre-industrial, with a record September sea surface temperature of 21.05°C (Copernicus) | The whole planet; 2027 is “very likely” to beat 2024 as the hottest year (Met Office) |
| Drier regions | Drought and wildfire risk | Australia, Indonesia, the Philippines, India, Southeast Asia, southern Africa, northern South America |
| Wetter regions | Heavy rain and floods | West coast of South America, East Africa, the southern United States |
| Oceans | Suppressed upwelling hurts fisheries; marine heatwaves bleach coral | Peru, Ecuador, tropical reefs |
| Storms | Atlantic hurricanes generally suppressed; central and eastern Pacific activity boosted; typhoons tend to form farther east | Caribbean, Pacific islands, the Philippines |
El Niño effect in Pakistan: what to expect
How El Niño reaches Pakistan
- It weakens the moisture-carrying monsoon circulation over South Asia.
- The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) has found that strong El Niño years generally bring weaker summer monsoon rain.
- The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) can alter the outcome, so the effect is not uniform.
What the 2026 monsoon already showed
- Pakistan’s warmest monsoon in 66 years coincided with a strengthening El Niño.
- Rainfall ran 19% below normal.
- Rain and flood incidents killed about 199 people and injured 556 (NDMA figures in the PMD report).
- Turbat hit 48.5°C on several days in July.
- The PMD did not name El Niño as the only cause; Bay of Bengal systems, Arabian Sea currents and westerly systems also shaped the season.
The paradox: dry plains, dangerous downpours
- NDMA’s Dr Tayyab says a strong El Niño tends to suppress South Asian rain but raise localised extremes and sudden monsoon bursts.
- A season can be below normal overall and still bring cloudbursts, flash floods and glacial lake risks in the north.
- Meanwhile, the plains of Punjab and Sindh face water stress.
- National Emergency Operations Centre officials warned of floods and droughts at the same time in different regions.
Heatwaves
- PMD has warned of above-normal temperatures through the year.
- The pre-monsoon period already saw temperatures 3–5°C above average in parts of Gilgit-Baltistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.
- Heat speeds up snow and glacier melt, strains the power grid, and endangers outdoor workers and the elderly.
Winter, rain and the wheat crop
The risk now shifts to the Rabi season.
- Past pattern: winters in strong El Niño years have often arrived late and dry.
- 2009–10: a study from Arid Agriculture University, Rawalpindi, linked low rain at sowing to very low rain-fed wheat yields.
- 2015: farmers reported sowing-season temperatures near 30°C, against the 21–25°C wheat prefers.
- Food security: FEWS NET warned that poor households were likely to run out of wheat stocks early and rely on markets from October.
Water: some good news, some caution
- Tarbela reached its maximum conservation level of 1,550 feet in August, holding about 5.58 million acre-feet.
- Slower filling at Mangla kept water managers cautious about the Rabi outlook.
- A weak winter in the northern catchments would test those reserves.
| Area | Likely El Niño impact in Pakistan | Risk to watch |
| Monsoon | Below-normal overall, but with intense local bursts | Flash floods, landslides, urban flooding |
| Temperature | Above-normal heat | Heatwaves, power demand, glacier melt |
| Winter and Rabi | Delayed or reduced rain, warm sowing season | Wheat yields, rain-fed farming |
| Water | Dependent on winter snow and rain | Reservoir levels, irrigation shortages |
| Food prices | Pressure from lower yields and global prices | Inflation for low-income households |
What are experts saying about El Niño 2026?
| Who | What they say |
| WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo | The event “could be unprecedented in strength” |
| UK Met Office | The biggest El Niño in over a century |
| Copernicus director Carlo Buontempo | The run of months above 1.5°C is likely to last into 2027 |
| CVF-V20 climate-vulnerable economies | The window to prepare before the peak is now measured in weeks |
| NDMA’s Dr Tayyab | Strong El Niño suppresses rain but raises local extremes |
| PMD | Strong El Niño years generally bring a weaker monsoon |
| ProPakistani analysis | Pakistan cannot stop El Niño but can limit the damage through coordination between PMD, NDMA, provincial authorities, irrigation, agriculture and health bodies |
Caveat: forecasts are probabilistic, and several agencies have raised their numbers month after month. NOAA has been described as more conservative than some independent forecasters, so watch each monthly update.
What will El Niño cost? Economic impact and industries
The global bill
| Estimate | Source | Figure |
| Cost of the 1982–83 and 1997–98 El Niños over five years | Callahan and Mankin, Science (2023) | $4.1 trillion and $5.7 trillion, mostly borne by poorer tropical countries |
| One-year global loss from the 2026 event | PIIE | About $686 billion (around 0.6% of global GDP) to about $986 billion |
| 2027 global loss | Allianz Research | $451 billion (0.24% of GDP); US $91 billion, India $50 billion |
| Inflation effect | Allianz Research | Headline +0.42 points, food +0.65 points |
| Commodity prices | Analyst estimates | Non-energy commodities historically up about 5% in the months after onset |
| Compounding risk | PIIE | Harvest losses arriving with fertiliser and fuel disruption linked to the Middle East conflict and Hormuz closure |
What it could mean for Pakistan’s economy
No authoritative Pakistan-specific cost estimate exists yet. The table shows the main channels the evidence points to.
| Sector | How El Niño could hit | What to watch |
| Agriculture and food | Late, dry or hot winter cuts Rabi wheat; weak monsoon pressures Kharif crops (rice, cotton, sugarcane) | Wheat output, food imports, food inflation |
| Energy and water | Hydropower depends on reservoirs and snow melt; heat raises electricity demand at the same time | Reservoir levels, load-shedding |
| Construction and real estate | Heat limits outdoor work hours; floods disrupt sites and transport; fuel and freight costs feed into cement, steel and brick prices | Material prices, site schedules, flood-prone locations |
| Textiles and exports | Cotton shocks raise input costs and hurt competitiveness | Cotton crop, export orders |
| Inflation and the budget | Food and energy price spikes plus disaster relief strain public finances | CPI, relief spending; Fitch warns sustained shortages can keep inflation high even in highly rated economies |
What is the Pakistan government doing?
| Body | What it is doing |
| PMD | Monthly and seasonal outlooks flagged El Niño months ahead |
| NDMA and NEOC | Using AI and drones to strengthen monitoring ahead of monsoon extremes; issues seasonal plans such as the Summer Hazards Contingency Plan (April–June 2026) |
| Prime Minister and Ministry of Climate Change | PM directed the ministry to prepare for the monsoon and produce a resilience plan; the climate minister has spoken of a 300-day climate action plan |
| Federal and provincial agencies | Short-, medium- and long-term plans, including repairs to flood-damaged dams, embankments and floodgates |
Gaps analysts keep pointing to
- Water storage
- Drainage and floodplain zoning
- Advisories that reach farmers in time
- Heat-health plans for cities
- Clear coordination between federal and provincial agencies
One analysis claims each rupee spent on preparedness can save up to seven in recovery costs. The figure comes from international climate economics, so treat it as indicative.
What are other governments doing?
| Country or body | Action |
| Sri Lanka | Special cabinet subcommittee set up in early July; ministries given two weeks to produce contingency plans for drinking water, irrigation and electricity |
| Kenya | National El Niño Contingency Plan covering flood mitigation, evacuation and shelter, drainage clearance, roads and bridges, medical supplies, farmer advisories and a contingency fund |
| WMO | Urging governments to prepare |
| PIIE economists | Recommend early global food reserves, humanitarian pre-positioning and faster, simpler funding rules for anticipatory action |
- Climate finance remains a sore point: the countries most exposed to El Niño often have the least fiscal room to respond.
What can you do? Practical steps for households and businesses
- Follow official alerts. Rely on PMD, NDMA and provincial disaster authority advisories rather than viral social media forecasts.
- Save water. Fix leaks, reuse water where safe, and avoid wasteful irrigation. Farmers should follow local advisories on sowing dates and drought-tolerant varieties.
- Prepare for heat. Keep hydrated, avoid outdoor work in the hottest hours, check on elderly neighbours and children, and plan for power cuts.
- Prepare for floods. Know your evacuation route, keep documents and medicines in a waterproof bag, clear drains and gutters near your home, and avoid building or buying in obvious flood paths.
- Protect your budget. Expect food prices to be volatile; stock staples sensibly without hoarding.
- Businesses and builders. Review supply chains, schedule site work around peak heat and heavy-rain periods, and budget for swings in material and freight prices.
- Cut emissions where you can. El Niño is natural, but climate change is making its effects worse, and every reduction in emissions helps.
FAQs – El Nino
| Question | Answer |
| What is El Niño in simple words? | A periodic warming of the central and eastern Pacific that changes weather worldwide, often bringing drought to some regions and floods to others. |
| Will there be El Niño or La Niña in 2026? | El Niño. It is expected to peak around December and last into early 2027, so winter 2026–27 will be an El Niño winter. |
| Is 2026 hot because of El Niño? | Partly. Climate change has pushed temperatures to record levels, and El Niño now adds to that. Copernicus says 2026 could be the hottest year on record, and the Met Office considers 2027 very likely to beat 2024. 2026 will not be cooler than 2025. |
| Which country will be worst affected? | There is no single answer. Tropical and farm-dependent economies are most exposed in proportion; India, the US and China have the largest absolute losses in Allianz’s estimate. |
| Will El Niño cause floods or drought in Pakistan? | Potentially both. The usual pattern is less monsoon and winter rain overall, but intense local downpours and flash floods can still occur, especially in the north. |
| Is El Niño caused by climate change? | No. It is a natural cycle, but climate change raises the baseline temperature, so El Niño’s heat lands on a warmer world. |
| What is the opposite of El Niño? | La Niña, the cold phase of the same cycle. |
| Why is it called El Niño? | Spanish for “the Christ Child.” Fishermen in Peru and Ecuador noticed the warm water arriving around Christmas. |
| When was the last El Niño? | 2023–24, which helped make 2024 the hottest year on record. The strongest earlier events were 1997–98 and 2015–16. |
| How does El Niño affect the Indian and Pakistani monsoon? | It weakens the monsoon circulation over South Asia, which tends to reduce seasonal rainfall in both countries, though local extremes remain possible. |
The Bottom Line
- El Niño cannot be stopped, but its damage can be reduced.
- A very strong, possibly record-breaking event is underway, peaking around December and keeping heat and food prices under pressure well into 2027.
- Pakistan’s priorities: protect the Rabi crop and water supplies, prepare for heat and sudden floods at once, and tie early warnings to action on the ground.
- What to watch: NOAA’s next update on 12 November and the PMD’s seasonal outlooks.
Sources
Forecasts and monitoring
- NOAA Climate Prediction Center: ENSO Diagnostic Discussion (monthly; 8 October 2026 update)
- WMO: Sea-surface temperatures reflect strengthening El Niño (8 October 2026)
- WMO: Global Seasonal Climate Update, October–December 2026
- WMO: Strong El Niño expected to intensify (31 July 2026)
- WMO: El Niño/La Niña Update
- SBS News/AFP: We now know when El Niño is expected to peak (8 October 2026)
- Columbia University IRI: ENSO Forecast, October 2026 quick look (19 October 2026)
- ARY News: Super El Niño could make 2026 record hottest year (Copernicus)
- The Star: Super El Niño could make 2026 the hottest year (Copernicus) (12 October 2026)
- CTV News: UK forecasts biggest El Niño will smash records, spark hottest year (Met Office)
- Euronews: El Niño to strengthen rapidly and fuel extreme weather (21 August 2026)
Pakistan
- Business Recorder: PMD monsoon report (warmest monsoon in 66 years, rainfall 19% below normal)
- Express Tribune: Hottest monsoon in 66 years recorded (16 October 2026)
- Express Tribune: South Asia likely to see weaker monsoon and higher temperatures in 2026: PMD
- Express Tribune: Tarbela full, Rabi water outlook strengthens (21 August 2026)
- ProPakistani: Super El Niño raises fresh weather risks for Pakistan (8 September 2026)
- ProPakistani: NDMA warns of intense monsoon amid super El Niño threat (23 April 2026)
- Arab News Pakistan: Pakistan to deploy AI drones as monsoon risks return
- PreventionWeb: NDMA Summer Contingency Plan 2026
- Dawn (SDPI): Looming danger (21 May 2026)
- FEWS NET: Asia Food Security Outlook, June 2026
- ENSO Cycle Effects on Rainfed Wheat of Pakistan (Arid Agriculture University, 2010 conference abstract)
Economy
- Callahan and Mankin, Science (2023): Persistent effect of El Niño on global economic growth
- PIIE Realtime Economics (2026): El Niño could drag down the global economy by almost $1 trillion
- PIIE Realtime Economics (2026): El Niño could drag down the global economy by almost $700 billion
- NewsBytes: Global economic impact of El Niño (Allianz Research)
- Fortune: El Niño and the global economy, trillions in losses (17 June 2026)
Government responses
- Daily FT (Sri Lanka): Govt launches El Niño task force, orders two-week preparedness plans
- People Daily (Kenya): Cabinet activates nationwide El Niño contingency plan
Explainers
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